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The big news

MCX to launch mini contracts for crude oil

24 December 2014

The Multi Commodity Exchange(MCX) may launch mini contracts for crude oil shortly. The Forward Markets Commission(FMC) has given the approval to launch crude oil mini futures contracts expiry in the year 2015.

 

The lot of a contract will be 10 barrel and price will appear per barrel at the exchange. It means if one rupee upward or downward change in price will fetch a profit or loss of Rs.10. The trading unit of the contract will be tone barrels and maximum size of the contracts will be 10 thousand barrels. The base price limit in the new contract is 4%, while first circuit limit is 6%.  The trading will be held up for 15 minutes after the first circuit and further circuit limit will be 9%. Trading margin in the contracts is 5%.

 

As per the FMC, the permission for the mini contracts shall also be subject to a limit on open position of each member and non-member client and the limit on daily price fluctuation and special margins as specified in the contract specification. Once the contracts are commenced, no terms of the contracts specification should be changed without prior approval of the Commission.


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Cumin seed acreage in Gujarat shrinks below 2.5 lakh ha

24 December 2014

Cumin seed acreage in Gujarat, the largest producer in the country, has shrunk 2.5 lakh ha. Sowing season in the state is almost over. The acreage of cumin seed was recorded only 2.49 lakh ha as of 22 December, while it was 4.40 lakh ha in the corresponding period a year ago. this shows 43% less sowing area as compared to previous year’s data.

Steep fall in output expected

The average productivity of cumin seed in Gujarat is 7.5-8 quintal per hectare. As per the agriculture department of the state, cumin seed was sown in 4.55 lakh ha and output was 3.46 lakh tons last year. Sowing has already lagged near 43% in the state. apart from this weather is not favourable for the crop this year as the temperature is still above normal in most part of the state, which may affect cumin seed crop. Under the existing weather conditions, cumin seed yield is expected to fall below 7 quintal a hectare.  

There is least chance of any further addition in cumin seed acreage in Gujarat. Sowing area had expanded to 4.4 lakh ha till 22 December last year due to favourable weather and total acreage was recorded 4.55 lakh ha in the whole rabi season. The acreage expanded near 15 thousand ha after 22 December, last year.

However, weather is not favourable for the crop this year. Even though, the acreage will not cross 2.65 ha after an addition of 15 thousand ha. In this situation, output is not expected to remain more than 1.85 lakh tons, which is near 47% less than previous year’s data.

Prices may surge above Rs.15,000 per quintal

Prices of cumin seed may rally as output is expected to fall. Under the existing circumstances, prices of cumin seed are seen to touch the level of Rs.15,000 per quintal.


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Base metals climbs after US GDP growth

24 December 2014

Most of the base metals climbed in the global market after the GDP data of the US, the second-biggest consumer of the metal. The US economy grew at the fastest pace since 2003 last quarter as the GDP of America rose at a 5%  annual rate from July through September.

 

Copper rose as much as 0.4 % after dropping for two days in the global market. However, prices of base metals,except nickel remained unchanged at the Multi Commodity Exchange.  Nickel also changed a little at the MCX.

 

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange climbed 0.2 % to $6,344 a  ton. In New York, futures for March delivery advanced 0.1% to $2.8695 a pound, while in Shanghai, metal for the same month was unchanged to close at 45,630yuan ($7,335) a ton.

 

Aluminum on the LME surged for the first time in five days, climbing 0.6 % to $1,880.25 a ton. The global aluminum shortage will widen to 387,000 tons in 2015, from an estimate of 125,000 tons this year, Marubeni Corp. said in a report. The deficit may widen to 872,000 tons in 2016. On the LME, nickel, tin and zinc rose. Lead was little changed.

 

As per the market analyst, the robust consumer and business spending in the US is a further indication that the recovery in the world’s largest economy is under way.


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Palm oil output in Malaysia expected to fall 11% this month

24 December 2014

The output of palm oil in Malaysia, the second largest producer, is expected to fall the most in 10 months in December amid a seasonal decline in yields.  On ther hand, prices have surged to the highest in almost a month.

Production is set to fall 11%  to 15.6 lakh tons from 17.5 lakh tons in November, as per an estimate. That would be the lowest for December since 2011 and 6.6 % less than a year earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board data show.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur are heading for the third annual loss in four years as global cooking oil supplies expand and a plunge in crude to the lowest since 2009 reduces demand for alternative fuels.

Futures increased as much as 1 % to 2,231 ringgit ($638) a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives on Wednesday, the highest level since Nov. 27, before trading at 2,223 ringgit by the midday break. Prices are down 16 % this year.

 Duty free export

Indonesia and Malaysia have scrapped export taxes to help cut reserves. Output typically declines from November through February because of the low-production season and as rains disrupt harvesting.

Weather forecast

The northeast monsoon brings widespread, continuous rains which often cause floods along the east coast states of Peninsula Malaysia from mid-November to early January, the Malaysian Meteorological Department said in its monthly report. The precipitation usually reaches Sabah and Sarawak from late this month until early February, it said. The two states are the largest producers of palm oil.

 

Inventories likely to decline

Inventories are expected to decline 4 % to 21.9 lakh tons by the end of the year from a month earlier, according to Alan Lim, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd. He expects output to drop 11 %  in December from November and to extend the decline in January, keeping prices above 2,100 ringgit, he said. Production, which reached a record 20,3 million tons in August, should recover in April. 


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NCDEX stocks position on 23 December

24 December 2014

The stocks position of defferent commodities in the NCDEX warehouses on 23 December at a glance... 

NCDEX stocks on 23 December

Commodities

 

Warehouses

Stocks  (tons)

Castor seed

 

Bhabhar

1199

tons

 

Deesa

27428

tons

 

Kadi

87110

tons

 

Patan

89597

tons

Total

 

205334

tons

Chana

 

Bikaner

17388

tons

 

Delhi

17986

tons

 

Indore

4,862

tons

Total

 

40236

tons

Coriander

 

Kota

0

tons

 

Gondal

506

tons

 

Jaipur

198

tons

 

Baran

448

tons

 

Kota

4355

tons

 

Ramganj Mandi

1406

tons

Total

 

6913

tons

Gold

 

Ahmedabad

2

Kg

 

Total

 

2

Kg

Gold  100 gm

 

Hyderabad

600gm

gm

Total

 

600gm

gm

Guar gum

 

Jodhpur

8887

tons

 

Bikaner

1240

tons

 

Nokha

525

tons

 

Sriganganagar

266

tons

 

Deesa

20

tons 

Total

 

10938

tons

Guar seed 10

 

Deesa

663

tons

 

Sriganganagar

5046

tons

 

Bikaner

9806

tons

 

Jodhpur

913

tons

 

Nokha

40

tons

Total

 

16468

tons

Cumin seed

Old cumin

Jodhpur

6

tons

Old cumin

Unjha

270

tons

New cumin

Jodhpur

821

tons

New cumin

Unjha

1529

tons

Total

 

2626

tons

Maize

 

Delhi

1302

tons

 

Gulabbag

1108

tons

 

Sangli

4251

tons

Total

 

6661

tons

Mustard

 

Alwar

261

tons

 

Hapur

0

tons

 

Jaipur

1535

tons

 

Kota

6289

tons

 

Sriganganagar

128

tons

Total

 

8,213

tons

Soybeans

 

Indore

12,752

tons

 

Kota

2,390

tons

 

Akola

751

tons

 

Itarasi

0

tons

 

Mandsaur

824

tons

 

Vidisha

710

tons

 

Total

17,427

tons

Sugar

 

Belgaum

969

tons

 

kolhapur (M grade+M gold)

1059

tons

 

Total

2,028

tons 

Turmeric Salem

 

Erode

10

tons

Turmeric Nizamabad

 

Nizamabad

1980

tons

 

 

Total

1990

tons

Wheat

 

Kota

864

tons

Bajra

 

Alwar

20

tons


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Crude oil holds near 2-week high as rise in US GDP likely to boost demand

24 December 2014

Prices of crude oil held near the highest in past two weeks as the US economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade, signaling fuel demand may increase in the world’s biggest consumer.

 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 0.7 % in New York, paring a 3.4 % gain on Tuesday. WTI for February delivery was at $56.74 a barrel in electronic trading on the NYMEX, down 38 cents.

 

Brent for February settlement slid 50 cents to $61.19 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $4.45 to WTI.

 

US GDP rises 5%

 The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States rose at a 5 % annual rate from July through September, the most since 2003, as per the revised Commerce Department data.

 

 US inventories shrink

US crude inventories probably fell to 377.4 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 19, as per a  survey of the analysts. Production accelerated to 9.14 million a day through Dec. 12, the most in weekly data that started in January 1983.

 

OPEC’s supply

OPEC, whose 12 members supply about 40 percent of the world’s oil, pumped 30.56 million barrels a day in November. That exceeded their collective target of 30 million for a sixth straight month.

 

Iraq Budget

Iraq approved a budget of 123 trillion dinars ($103 billion) for 2015, according to Saad Al-Hadithi, a spokesman. It’s based on a $60-a-barrel price of oil and compares with a previously planned spending of 141 trillion dinars.

 

Crude heading for biggest annual decline since 2008

 Crude oil is heading for the biggest annual decline since 2008 amid a global glut exacerbated by the highest US output in more than three decades and as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted supply cuts to defend market share. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, approved a spending plan for next year that’s smaller than the government expected.


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Gold assets in biggest bullion ETF shrinks 75-month low

24 December 2014

Gold has not been lucrative option for investment as holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell 1.6 % on Tuesday to 712.9 metric tons, the biggest drop since June 2013. Assets shrank near the lowest level in past 75 months.

The SPDR Gold Trust is the world’s largest exchange traded fund (ETF) backed by bullion in which global investors invest in gold through.

Investors in the world’s biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion sold the most gold in 18 months as the US economic recovery cut demand for a haven.

SPDR holdings decline 47%  in two years

The ETF SPDR Gold Trust had 1350 tons of gold in 2012, which has shrunk more than 47% as investment demand for gold seems to be diminishing after recovery in the US economy. The Federal Reserve initiated to reduce bond buying in the beginning of the last year, after which liquidity crisis rose in the US economy, as a result prices of gold have been declining. Gold touched the highest level of $1,920 an ounce in the global market in 2012, while the yellow metal is currently trading below $1,180 per ounce.

Gold tumbles as dollar strengthens

The US currency is constantly rallying, which has created pressure on the prices of the commodities in the market. One hand Dollar Index has surged to the highest level in past nine years, on the other hand, dollar is also trading near the biggest level in 29 months. As dollar has been rallying, the investors have moved from the option of secure investment to the high yielding options. Gold is also considered as the secure option of investment. That is why the prices of gold are falling. 


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Dollar slacks against Euro

24 December 2014

The US currency is trading with slackness against euro. Dollar was trading near $ 1.2173 against euro, while it had closed at $1.2174 a euro in the last session.


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Rupee slips 15 paise to 63.43 a dollar

24 December 2014

Rupee extended its losses against dollar. Indian currency weakened 15 paise against the US dollar and opened at Rs.63.43 a dollar on Wednesday. Rupee had closed at 63.28 er dollar in the previous session.

 


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Feasibility of crude price near $20 a barrel!!

23 December 2014

Prices of crude oils are ruling near $ 60 a barrel.  Brent crude remained around $60 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate rose $1.59 to $56.85 a barrel under pressure from a supply glut but supported by forecasts of stronger economic data from the US.

 

 Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, is still reluctant to reduce production of oil as he has argued Whether the prices might go down to $20, $40, $50, $60, but output cut is not in the group’s interest.

 

The markets analysts see Brent crude to fall below $60 per barrel over the next six months and WTI may fall to $50. If slump in crude oil continues, what will be the next support is yet to guess. 

 

However, $20 per barrel seems to be imaginary as it could not be a feasible price for the small producers and they may opt to shut down. Even, the US will start to purchase crude oil rather to continue production.  


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Live Video

MANDI/SPOT PRICE

Gold(Mumbai) 26,980 [+270] Gold(Delhi) 27,100 [+270] Gold(Chennai) 27,050 [+260Gold(Jaipur) 26,850 [+200] Silver(Delhi) 39,190 [+330] Silver(Mumbai) 39,190 [+330] Silver(Chennai) 39,190 [+330] Silver(Jaipur) 39,500 [+900] Chana(Rajkot) 2,550 [00Chana(Bikaner) 2,651 [+18] Dhaniya(Rajkot) 9,750 [+250] Jeera(Rajkot) 9,000 [00] Mustard Seed(Rajkot) 3,000 [00] Maize(Rajkot) 1,325 [-25] Wheat(Rajkot) 1,500 [-25] Wheat(Indore) 1,480 [00] Guar Seed(Bikaner) 5,537 [+228]

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