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The big news

US gains GDP 3.5% growth as govt spending expanded

30 October 2014

The US economy expanded more than forecast in the third quarter, capping its strongest six months in more than a decade, as gains in government spending and a shrinking trade deficit made up for a slowdown in household purchases.  

Gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 % annualized rate in the three months ended September after a 4.6 % gain in the second quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. It marked the strongest back-to-back readings since the last six months of 2003.

Growing oil production is limiting imports and contributing to a pickup in manufacturing, allowing the economy to overcome slowing growth in overseas markets from Europe to China. At the same time, job gains and cheaper gasoline are giving American consumers the confidence and the means to spend, brightening the outlook for the holiday shopping season and helping explain why the Federal Reserve ended its bond-buying program.

Jobless Claims

Jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 287,000 in the week ended Oct. 25. The four-week average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, declined to 281,000, the fewest since May 2000.

The report on third-quarter growth is the last major economic indicator before next week’s mid-term election, in which Republicans are expected to expand their majority in the House and perhaps net the six seats they need to take control of the Senate.

President Barack Obama’s fellow Democrats have struggled against the headwinds of his underwater approval rating, which has been mired below 45 % in recent polls, and stagnant wages.

The second quarter’s 4.6 % jumped reflected a rebound from a 2.1 % slump in the first quarter that partly reflected a harsh winter.

Maintaining Momentum                 

“The 4.6% was largely a rebound from the very difficult weather in the first quarter,” Price said before the report. “Now the economy is still maintaining a pretty good pace off of that rebound.”

Consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70 % of the economy, climbed at a 1.8 % pace last quarter after growing at a 2.5 % rate in the previous three months, today’s report showed.

Appliance demand raises

“U.S. appliances demand continued to strengthen in the third quarter,” Marc Bitzer, who oversees North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East for Whirlpool, said in an Oct. 28 earnings call. “We continue to see improvements in employment and consumer confidence, which bodes well for all aspects of demand in the U.S.”

Sustained improvement in the job market will be needed to give households the income and the confidence to continue purchases. Payrolls climbed by 248,000 in September and the jobless rate declined to 5.9 %, the lowest level since July 2008.

The biggest drop in crude prices since the global financial crisis six years ago may also boost GDP, as cheaper fuel gives consumers extra spending money heading into the holiday shopping season. Looking forward economists expect growth to hover around 3 percent through the first quarter of 2015.

The Federal Reserve confirmed it will end the asset-buying program this month that added $1.66 trillion to its balance sheet while maintaining a pledge to keep interest rates low for a “considerable time.”

Labor Market conditions improve

“Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. “A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing,” the panel said, modifying earlier language that “there remains significant underutilization of labor resources.”

Government spending climbed at a 4.6 % pace, the most since the second quarter of 2009, today’s report showed. The pickup reflected a rebound in defense outlays.

The trade gap narrowed to $409.9 billion from $460.4 billion in the second quarter as imports dropped, reflecting fewer purchases of foreign oil and consumer goods. The narrowing deficit added 1.3 percentage points to GDP.

Inventories grew at a slower pace, subtracting almost 0.6 percentage points from growth. Excluding stockpiles, so-called final sales climbed at a 4.2 percent pace last quarter, the most since 2010.

The trade gap and inventories are two of the most volatile components in GDP calculations, and can show significant revisions in subsequent reports.


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Badal asks for upward revision of MSP

30 October 2014

The chief Minister of Punjab, Prakash Singh Badal has sought upward revision of Minimum Support Price(MSP)  for wheat for the forthcoming season. Badal said, "The MSP must be hiked to the level where the mismatch between input costs of agriculture produce and MSP announced for these is removed,"

 

 He asked the union government to implement  Swaminthan formula for fixing the MSP. According to this formula, farmers should get an MSP which should cover production costs, plus 50 % of these costs to be paid to the farmer. "He saw hope in the approach, philosophy and  administrative response of the present government to the needs of the poor and the farmers", Badal said, adding that  considering market realities and the overall price index in the country, a wheat price of Rs 1450 could not even cover the  expenses incurred by the farmers. These costs, said Badal, had been going up despite the NDA  government’s success in bridling the rate of inflation. Badal said the announcement of MSP should be made well before the start of the sowing season so that farmers can  decide which crops to sow.

He said at present there is a serious disconnect between the needs of the farmers on one hand and priorities of  governments on the other. "This disconnect, which has lasted nearly seven decades since independence must be ended," he said. Badal advocated the need for adopting and implementing aggressively pro-agriculture and pro-farmer policies to offset the negative effects of the agrarian crisis brought upon the economy in general and farmers in particular.

 The new government at the centre had to battle the legacy of the anti-farmer and anti poor policies of the UPA, he said.

"That makes it all the more necessary for the NDA government to undo the crippling effects of the UPA legacy and adopt and aggressively pro-agriculture and pro-farming policy. Hiking the MSP beyond the Rs 50 per quintal would be the first step in that direction," he said.

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NCDEX slashes warehouse rentals from 3 to 16.7 %

30 October 2014

The warehouse rentals of the commodity exchange NCDEX will fall next month, as National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited has announced  reduction from 3 % to  16.7 % in rental charges for its approved warehouses across the country.

This  move will benefit all the participants on the exchange platform. The rental charges for NCDEX approved warehouses have been slashed across different commodities in various locations.The reduction in charges from 3 % to 16.7 % will make storing commodities cheaper for the depositors. The reduced charges will be applicable for deposits made from November 1, 2014 onwards.

  "Driving next generation warehousing reforms, aimed at developing a robust and transparent ecosystem is our biggest  priority. Our aim is to make storage of commodities in NCDEX  approved warehouses a safer experience for traders and farmers and the reduced rentals will help them derive better realization for their produce," NCDEX MD and CEO Samir Shah said.

 NCDEX had recently introduced an additional safeguard  procedure with compulsory  second quality testing for fresh deposits at no additional cost to the depositors. This procedure is  implemented during fresh deposits at the exchange registered warehouses, to ensure that they meet the  contract specifications.

 Some of the other initiatives taken to strengthen quality,  include NABL accreditation for testing labs, review of the sampling process and audit testing of the goods during storage in the approved warehouses.  

 


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Prices of Chana and Toor gain

30 October 2014

Prices of Chana(Begal gram) and Toor (Pigeon peas) rose after the government announced to increase the minimum support prices of pulse crops for  Rabi season 2014-15. Rajasthani Chana prices gained Rs.50 and it is trading at Rs. 3,100 per quintal in Lorence roadmandi of Delhi.  Also, at Naya Bazar Rajasthani Chana rose by Rs,200 and it is trading at Rs.3,150 per quintal and Chapa quality is trading at Naya Bazar itself with a rise of Rs.50 in prices at Rs. 3, 450 per quintal.  

The impact of rise in the minimum support prices of Chana and Masoor(red lentil) has influenced the prices of Toor. Toor hiked by Rs,250 went up to Rs.5,200 per quintal at Naya Bazar on Thursday.

 

 Views

Pulses trader of Delhi, Subhash Agrawal says that Toor prices have gone up amid the speculation of shortfall in output after droughts in Karnataka.   

 

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Copper plunges from six-week high as dollar gains

30 October 2014

American central bank, Federal Reserve’ decision to end its bond-purchase program has influenced prices of base metals also, as Copper plunged for the first time in four days following strengthened dollar, which reduced the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

The metal retreated as much as 1.2 % after closing in previous session at the highest in almost six weeks. Fed officials, voting to proceed with plans to end monthly bond-buying, dismissed recent turmoil in global financial markets and focused on employment gains. Policy makers at the end of a two-day meeting maintained a commitment to keep borrowing costs low for a considerable time. A measure of the US dollar advanced for a second day after rising previous day by the most in more than three weeks.

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 1 % to $6,749 a metric ton in Hong Kong after closing at $6,815 during the previous session, the highest since Sept. 19. In New York, futures for December delivery slid 1.1 % to $3.0705 a pound, while the January contract in Shanghai lost 0.5 % to end at 47,510 yuan ($7,769) a ton. All other main metals on the LME declined.

Possible strikes at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and at the Antamina mine in Peru may disrupt 3.1 % of world copper production.

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NCDEX Mustard stocks drop by 80%

30 October 2014

Stocks of Mustard in the warehouses of NCDEX is about to clear in last one. stocks fell by 80% in the warehouses of the exchange on 29 October. On 30 September, the warehouses had only 11,691 tonnes of Mustard which reduced to 11,691 tonnes on 29 October. 2,331 tonnes only. in last one month, warehouses of Jaipur and Kota recorded largest fall in stocks. Jaipur and Kota warehouses registered 7,796 tonnes and 1,113 tonnes reduction in stocks respectively.

Big fall in Mustard stocks

Warehouses

Stocks (30.09.14)

stocks (29.10.14)

change

Alwar

311

301

-10

Bharatpur

20

20

0

Bikaner

785

414

-371

Hapur

30

30

0

Jaipur

8668

872

-7796

Kota

1696

583

-1113

Sriganganagar

181

111

-70

Total

11691

2331

-9360

Stocks in tonnes

 

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Soybean climbs 10-week high following US railroad jams

30 October 2014

Soybeans rose to a 10-week high leading the biggest monthly jump in more than six years as railroad jams in the US hampered deliveries. Corn was poised for the largest monthly gain since 2012.

Soybeans for January delivery climbed as much as 1 % to $10.5925 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest level for a most-active contract since Aug. 18. Futures were at $10.51. in Singapore, rising 15 percent this month for the biggest such gain since June 2008.

Jams slow delivery

Weekly train speeds fell last week to the lowest since April 2010 while waiting times at terminals rose to the highest since July, data from the Association of America Railroads show. The rail delays, while short-term in nature, have boosted prices, Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., said. The soybean crop in America will climb to a record 3.927 billion bushels, the Department of Agriculture said Oct. 10.

Corn for delivery in December rose 0.3 % to $3.765 a bushel, after climbing 3 % previous day. The grain is headed for a 17 percent increase in October, the biggest monthly advance since July 2012. US corn output will reach an all-time high of 14.475 billion bushels, the USDA estimates.

Wheat for December delivery advanced as much as 0.9 % to $5.43 a bushel and traded at $5.425, climbing 14 percent in October, the biggest monthly gain since March.

 


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Gold production cost cut by largest producer after spending estimates

30 October 2014

The largest gold producer, Barrick Gold Corporation  has reduced its forecast for operating costs this year after reporting third-quarter expenses.

After drops in expenses, the costs will be $880 to $920 an ounce, compared with a previous range of $900 to $940, Toronto-based Barrick said in its third-quarter earnings statement.

Barrick is among gold producers that have reined in spending and delayed growth plans after the metal’s 28 % decline last year. Third-quarter costs fell 8.8 % to $834 an ounce, compared with the $916 average of three estimates.

Barrick’s China President

While the company’s leadership, helmed by Chairman John Thornton, seeks to position Barrick as the “investment of choice among gold producers,” it faces headwinds including high debt levels and a faltering gold price. Barrick shares have dropped 23% this year in Toronto and closed during the last session at the lowest since May 1992.

Barrick appointed Woo C. Lee to a new position as President, China, during the quarter, as it seeks to develop closer ties to the biggest gold consumer.

Woo joined Sept. 18 to act as Barrick’s “representative on the ground, working with the Chinese government, mining companies, investors and suppliers in pursuit of opportunities in China and the surrounding region,”  as per Barrick spokesman.

The executive previously worked for the US State Department for 16 years with postings in countries including China, Japan and Australia and as an adviser to Thornton’s JL Thornton & Co., Lloyd said.

The company is “focused on the best regions,” where it already has technical knowledge and strong partnerships, Co-President Kelvin Dushnisky said in the statement. “We will only invest in mines and development opportunities that can generate strong returns and free cash flow through commodity cycles.”

Mine Sales

Under Jamie Sokalsky, who was appointed CEO in June 2012, the company divested smaller and less-profitable mines, reduced operating costs and sold new shares to reduce debt. Sokalsky left last month, after Barrick announced his departure in July and named Dushnisky and Jim Gowans as co-presidents. Thornton, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. president, became chairman of the gold producer onApril 30 to replace founder Peter Munk.

Gold futures averaged $1,282.12 an ounce in the quarter on the Comex in New York, 3.4% lower than a year earlier.


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Mentha stocks surges after 2-day fall

30 October 2014

The Stocks of Mentha oil once again rose after exhibiting fall for two days. Stocks expanded by 94 tonnes to 5,037 tonnes in the warehouses of the exchange on Wednesday. The capacity to store Mentha oil in the warehouses of the exchange is 5,500 tonnes. It was recoded 4,943 tonnes in warehouses on Tuesday.

 

Fall in stocks leads price hike.

Hike in prices of Mentha oil is due to fall in its stocks. Mentha oil is trading for November future on MCX with a rise of Rs. 5 at Rs. 692. Its prices gained following a boost in purchase at lower rates.

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India asks China for relaxation in oilseed import duty

30 October 2014

The export of sesame and groundnut oilseed to China has reduced by around 66% and 93% respectively in the last few years, as China imposes import duty on the purchase of the above oilseed form India.

 

The government of India has urged China for relaxation in import duty on oilseed purchased from India under provisions of the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) to help boost exports from India and reduce its trade deficit with China.

 

In past few years, there has been spike in oilseed output in India despite of wavering weather conditions, as 60% of oilseed production depends on rain. For the financial year of 2013-14, the estimates of oilseed output reached a record high approx. 328.77 lakh tonnes.

 

Surge in Export

 

As per the Indian Oilseed and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC), total oilseed exports by India upsurged to around 10 lakh tonnes worth around Rs.7,992 crore in 2013-14, which is up about 66% and 160% in tonnage and value respectively, up from around 6 lakh tonnes worth around Rs.3,080 crore of exports recorded in 2009-10.

 

In 2013-14, groundnuts contributed about 60% in total exports of oilseed from India, sesame held top foreign exchange earner in this sector. The share of sesame seeds (of around 257,440 tonnes) in       2013-14 was near30% by volume but in value it remained 50% from total oilseed exports by India.

 

China purchase reduces

 

Undoubtedly,  there is scope for further growth in both volume and value, particularly in markets such as China which has reduced its oilseed purchases from India in the recent years. As per the IOPEC, China purchased about 3,832 tonnes of sesame oilseed in 2013-14, i.e., around 1.5% of total sesame oilseed exports by India previous year,  a reduction of about 66% from around 11,389 tonnes recorded in 2011-12.

 

Obviously,  a steep fall in groundnuts export to China is shocking for India. China imported around 2,687 tonnes of groundnuts from India in 2013-14, which is down almost 93% from 38,340 tonnes in 2011-12. This is partly due to high import duties on oilseed imports from India. At present, China imposes duty rates of 10% on sesame seed and 15% on groundnuts imports from India, while some Africa countries in do not impose any import duty.

 

A delegation led by Nirmala Sitharaman, the Commerce Minister of India, recently, on China visit urged the Chinese government to reduce import duty on oilseed imports from India. According to Kishore Tanna, Chairman, IOPEPC, who was part of the Joint Economic Group (JEG) delegation to China,  “The Council has requested Chinese authorities to bring down Chinese import duty on sesame seed and groundnut to zero. We have suggested that the import tariff for oilseed can be reduced significantly under the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) and are hopeful of an early resolution of the matter.”

 

The IOPEC is holding an Annual Trade Meet in Jaipur this week in order to enhance oilseed export from India.

 

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MANDI/SPOT PRICE

Gold(Mumbai) 26,980 [+270] Gold(Delhi) 27,100 [+270] Gold(Chennai) 27,050 [+260Gold(Jaipur) 26,850 [+200] Silver(Delhi) 39,190 [+330] Silver(Mumbai) 39,190 [+330] Silver(Chennai) 39,190 [+330] Silver(Jaipur) 39,500 [+900] Chana(Rajkot) 2,550 [00Chana(Bikaner) 2,651 [+18] Dhaniya(Rajkot) 9,750 [+250] Jeera(Rajkot) 9,000 [00] Mustard Seed(Rajkot) 3,000 [00] Maize(Rajkot) 1,325 [-25] Wheat(Rajkot) 1,500 [-25] Wheat(Indore) 1,480 [00] Guar Seed(Bikaner) 5,537 [+228]

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